Conflict; terms-of-trade shock; commodity prices; low-income countries; fragile and conflict-affected states; spillover

The main goal of this paper is to propose an action-oriented conceptual framework to assess the risk of conflict, crisis and instability in the Arab region. Drawing upon decades of empirical literature on drivers and predictors of conflict or fatal political violence, the proposed framework identifies three “risk pathways” that are associated with a greater risk of crisis and instability in the Arab region. The rationale and justification for each component is discussed with an overview of appropriate literature, as well as its relevance in the regional context. The framework is action-oriented as it distinguishes between “structural” risk factors over which a country can exercise limited control, and “policy-driven” factors that can be mitigated, thereby allowing decision makers to effectively tailor response and prevention.

As countries worldwide are still recovering from the repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine is expected to result in severe implications for the global economy. Gulf Cooperation Council countries will profit from oil price hikes caused by the war in Ukraine. All other Arab countries are expected to grow at a slower pace than pre-crisis projections.

U.S. China Relations, Technology